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Entries in Sideswiped (1)

Thursday
Jan192017

Sideswpided

At times you have an epiphany moment, and the other day it appeared on our radar that not only can you get disrupted from a myriad directions. Yes...everyone is constantly talking about disruption, business models changing, revenue sources altering.

In most instances you will get an initial signal of disruption on the horizon, then its up to you to adjust and recalibrate your actions and/or business model. Remaining stagnant is not an option.

But you can also get sideswiped and perhaps in a totally unexpected fashion, with varying negative results.

Canada is in the ideal position of being sideswiped in the near future by economic forces, or just a tweet. Yes...you want to reflect on this for at least a moment.

Auto Business:

We make auto parts and components, as well as assemble vehicles in Canada. Been doing it for decades, its always worked, although there have been pressures to perhaps make components, assemble vehicles elsewhere for less money.

We have had record auto sales for the past few years.

What happens when you start applying additional fees on the components and assembled vehicles? What decisions will be made? What will be the impact? Who wins and who loses?

The old Auto Pact was simple if Canada shipped $1.00 to the US it had to import $1.00 from the US, and July was the month to balance the books. Today NAFTA is a free for all with stuff coming from all over the place.

Perhaps nothing will change...but there is a cloud...the auto business just got sideswiped.

Lets not forget that the Canadian dollar at 75 cents is still not cheap enough.

Economy:

How often are you still hearing "The Great Recession" which in reality never happened in Canada. We experienced a slowdown but certainly not a major upheavel. In the meantime many Canadian companies made money and conveniently sat on the money. The premise was the great recession, uncertainty, and whatever other flavor of the day. In the meantime lets leave the money in the bank, lets sit on it.

Lets drop the interest rates to stimulate the economy, lets piss away the value of the Canadian dollar to encourage exports, and with time something will come our way.

As we roll into a time of "I'm going to get my shit together and I really don't give a fuck about anyone else". Do you think that Canada is getting sideswiped?

Citizen Main Street:

CMS is the only bright spot. Cheap money, low Canadian dollar, solid Canadian banks, a ton of money available. "Lets buy real estate, lets buy vehicles, lets take care of ourselves while keeping the economy rolling".

Who is going to buy all these houses at "ridiculous" prices, who is going to buy a record number of vehicles. Who else...CMS.

It worked so well that it scared the piss out of a ton of folks, and construction developed into the biggest Canadian industry. Not oil, not manufacturing, construction powered by CMS.

Will CMS get sideswiped? NO  Can CMS be more mindful with money? YES